Thunderstorms Possible

Many locations throughout the state received rainfall over the past 24 hours. A few locations saw upwards of a half inch of rain while the norm seemed to be just above a tenth of an inch. Currently, there is some ridging directly over the Great Plains this morning which alludes to the expected warm temperatures today. A long wave trough is digging into the West Coast of the US. Temperatures this morning are in the 50s and 60s with some fog across the central part of the state and altocumulus over the northwest (hints of moisture and instability). Light and variable winds are being reported.

This aforementioned negatively tilted trough will briefly amplify the ridge over area throughout the day while strong southwesterly flow aloft will bring ample shear. Meanwhile, at the surface warm and moist air will stream into SD ahead of a warm front/dry line that will push into far eastern WY. This boundary combined with strong theta-e advection will promote shower and thunderstorm development across western SD this afternoon. Some of the storm may reach severe criteria with strong winds and large hail. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid 80s and east to southeast winds are expected. When storms do form  they are expected to congeal into a line in the evening and push into eastern SD.

The upper level trough will fully affect the area tomorrow as it pushes closer to the state. This upper trough will force the formation of a surface low over CO that will push east with time. A surface pressure trough will then extend to the north of this low through SD and provide the foci for thunderstorm development. At this time, it appears that severe weather is likely with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes being possible. Keep an eye on your local forecasts.

Some remnant showers and thunderstorms will persist into Sunday but the severe threat should be mostly gone. 

Critical Fire Weather

No critical fire weather expected.