Many locations throughout the state
received rainfall over the past 24
hours. A few locations saw upwards of a
half inch of rain while the norm seemed
to be just above a tenth of an inch.
Currently, there is some ridging
directly over the Great Plains this
morning which alludes to the expected
warm temperatures today. A long wave
trough is digging into the West Coast of
the US. Temperatures this morning are in
the 50s and 60s with some fog across the
central part of the state and
altocumulus over the northwest (hints of
moisture and instability). Light and
variable winds are being reported.
This aforementioned negatively tilted
trough will briefly amplify the ridge
over area throughout the day while
strong southwesterly flow aloft will
bring ample shear. Meanwhile, at the
surface warm and moist air will stream
into SD ahead of a warm front/dry line
that will push into far eastern WY. This
boundary combined with strong theta-e
advection will promote shower and
thunderstorm development across western
SD this afternoon. Some of the storm may
reach severe criteria with strong winds
and large hail. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the mid 80s and
east to southeast winds are expected.
When storms do form they are
expected to congeal into a line in the
evening and push into eastern SD.
The upper level trough will fully affect
the area tomorrow as it pushes closer to
the state. This upper trough will force
the formation of a surface low over CO
that will push east with time. A surface
pressure trough will then extend to the
north of this low through SD and provide
the foci for thunderstorm development.
At this time, it appears that severe
weather is likely with large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
being possible. Keep an eye on your
Some remnant showers and thunderstorms
will persist into Sunday but the severe
threat should be mostly gone.
Critical Fire Weather
No critical fire weather expected.