Dept of Agriculture Wildland Fire Suppression logo

Darren R. Clabo

State Fire Meteorologist, South Dakota

IAS logo

Weather LinksFire LinksPhotos/VideoMobileCampus Work

Current Conditions at SDSM&T

 

Daily Weather Discussion (updated 08/03/2015 07:12)  (click your refresh button to ensure most recent forecast)

An upper level ridge is currently over the western US extending northward into southwestern Canada. A cut-off low has develop in the midst of the ridge over the Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure extends across the Dakotas this morning bringing light and variable winds to SD. Temperatures are in the 50s and 60s under mostly clear skies.

Another pleasant day is in store today with the high pressure system over the region. High temperature will peak in the 80s statewide, warmest over west-central SD. Skies will be mostly clear over much of the state; however, some cloudiness and even a few showers and thunderstorms are possible along the border adjacent to the NE Panhandle late this afternoon. Winds will be light becoming southeast with time. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to pick up over southwestern SD this evening in response to strong theta-e advection at the lower levels. A couple of severe storms are possible but heavy rain will be the primary threat.

Southeasterly winds will pick up statewide tomorrow in response to a developing trough in the lee of the WY Rockies. This will allow ample moisture to advect into the region. This moisture will combine with sufficient instability to produce showers and thunderstorms over western and southwestern SD. Some storms could be severe; however, the biggest threat will be very heavy rainfall. Storm motions will be very slow and precipitable water values will be very high... some flash flooding issues may occur. High temperatures will again be in the 80s. Northeastern SD will stay out of the precipitation shield and should see mostly clear skies throughout the day.

Critical Fire Weather

No critical fire weather is expected for the week of July 27.

 

Now Available! 2015 SD Fire Potential Outlook

Downloadable versions (21 May version):

MPEG4

html

PDF version

 

 

 

 

 

Briefing Center

Fire Weather Portal

Drought Portal

Fire Danger Portal

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/current/current_sd_trd.jpg Experimental South Dakota Grassland Fire Danger Map

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/firewx/fire_weather_zone_map_large.jpg

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.png

NFDRS Forecast Image

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1fireotlk-overview.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/curr.w.anom.daily.gif http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Outlooks

6-10 Day

One Month

Three Month

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_prcp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

 

Weekly Weather Update:

Weekly Weather Update:  Monday 29 June 2015

 (Climate) No real changes in conditions.  Still dryness across parts of the south central to southeast. I think cooler conditions are keeping much stress and drying out at bay for now.  The only odd thing I have been seeing (not sure if this is showing up in greenness maps) is a higher stress area in east central SD on this product.

http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-remote-sensing/evaporative-stress-index. Regarding the image, further south for the red area into southeast SD I would not question.  But its location does seem a little odd.

Also getting some more hail damage and wind damage to tress and crops.  Not sure if that is enough to be of concern for any fire issues or not… Hope we don’t turn quickly dry.  There would probably be plenty to burn in the west now.  I don’t see anything that would indicate turning dry and hot.  I could see a scenario where we are cool and dry in July if that western ridge builds in.  Climate prediction center is still showing cool and wet.  But I really don’t see a hot-dry condition building in here anyway.  (Dennis Todey)

 

(Weather) A large upper level ridge has built into the western CONUS over the weekend bringing record-breaking temperatures to parts of the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. South Dakota is on the downstream side of the ridge in northerly flow aloft which is bringing plenty of smoke from Canadian wildfires into central and eastern SD. The northerly, subsiding flow is also keeping us under mostly clear skies statewide. There are a few cumulus clouds sprouting up over the Black Hills this afternoon and a shower or two is possible there due to the higher terrain. Otherwise skies across the state will remain mostly clear (well, clear of clouds at least). Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Light west to northwest winds will continue into sunset.

 

A weak area of high pressure will move through the state tonight leading to southeasterly winds for the day tomorrow. Temperatures will be similar to today over much of the state although slightly cooler conditions are expected over northeastern SD: highs will range from the low 80s over the northeast to the low 90s over the southwest. A subtle upper level wave will then cross through the area tomorrow afternoon. This will lead to slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the state. The best chances of precipitation will occur over the Black Hills and Coteau areas but widespread storminess is still not expected.

 

Some showers and thunderstorms may continue overnight into Wednesday. Some shower and thunderstorms redevelopment is likely over eastern SD during Wednesday afternoon as well. Central and western SD should stay mostly clear. Temperatures will peak from lower 90s over the southwest to the upper 70s over the northeast. Winds will shift from the east to the north throughout the day. 

 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday with the best chances for rain over central and eastern portions of the state. Some heavy rain is possible with a marginal threat for severe weather. Temperatures will likely be in the 70s over most areas, with some low 80s over the southwest. Northwest winds are expected over West River areas with easterly winds over East River areas… the converging winds over central SD will be the focus for thunderstorm activity during the day.

 

Friday-Sunday: High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday before climbing into the mid-80s statewide for Saturday and Sunday. Mostly clear skies are expected Friday-Sunday over western SD. Central/eastern SD will see mostly clear skies Friday while a chance of precipitation sneaks into the forecast over central and eastern portions of the state on Saturday/Sunday. Northeast winds on Friday will transition to the east for Saturday and Sunday. All in all, a pretty nice weekend is in store.

 

Summary: Warmer temperatures are expected this week with periodic chances of precipitation. Relatively high humidity and green fuels will preclude any fire weather headlines. (Darren Clabo)

 

(Fire/Fuels) A 5 acre fire was reported south of the Elk Mountain Lookout on Friday. From the looks of the photos, it was burning in/around plenty of snags leftover from numerous past fires in that area. Anthony Kennedy from the CRA reported a 237 acres fire 5 miles east of Faith, SD. This fire was started by a landowner in stubble and did have a well-formed head fire before it carried into the prairie. The fire burned through what appeared to be fully green grass (80% live/20% cured).

 

I think the take-away here is that there is plenty of dead grass/thatch on the surface below the green standing grass and this dead component will carry fire. Considering the recent hot temperatures, the thatch component might be sufficiently receptive to small ignition sources. It is fireworks season so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some IA this week in the grass fuel models. Do not forget that the soils over much of the state are still very wet and consider those wet conditions before heading off-road. (Darren Clabo)

 

*** NOTE: Next update on Monday 6 July ***

 

 

Contact:

Darren Clabo, SD State Fire Meteorologist: darren.clabo@sdsmt.edu

Dennis Todey, SD State Climatologist: dennis.todey@sdstate.edu

Jim Strain, SD Assistant Fire Chief: jim.strain@state.sd.us

 

 

Darren R. Clabo * State Fire Meteorologist/Instructor * Institute of Atmospheric Sciences

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology * 501 East Saint Joseph Street * Rapid City, SD 57701

darren.clabo@sdsmt.edu * (O) 605-394-1996 * (C) 605-381-9253 *