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Darren R. Clabo

State Fire Meteorologist, South Dakota

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Current Conditions at SDSM&T

 

Daily Weather Discussion (updated 08/01/2014 08:50)  (click your refresh button to ensure most recent forecast)

Upper level ridging over the western CONUS continues to bring NW'erly flow over SD. Weak waves are embedded in the flow with a wave currently over central MY per water vapor imagery. There was a bit of fog over eastern SD this morning but that has since cleared and skies are mostly cloud free across the state. Temperatures are in the 60s and 70s with light winds, mainly out of the south.

The timing of the aforementioned upper wave will coincide with peak heating this afternoon. This will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to form across the state with focus over the Black Hills. Weak shear is in place so I don't anticipate too much in the way of severe storms although some marginally severe hail events are possible. Don't forget about the lightning either. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s over western and central SD while the eastern third of the state will be in the mid 80s, as will the Black Hills. Winds will remain light and somewhat variable.

A similar story is in place tomorrow except with lower rain chances as subsidence overtakes the region. Skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday will start off clear but a few showers/thunderstorms are possible over the western half of the state. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday. East to northeast winds are expected both days. 

 

Critical Fire Weather

No critical fire weather is expected.

 

2014 SD Fire Potential Outlook

2014 Fire Outlook updates (21 May)

2014 Fire Outlook now available (3 April)

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Briefing Center

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http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/current/current_sd_trd.jpg Experimental South Dakota Grassland Fire Danger Map

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NFDRS Forecast Image

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Weekly Weather Update:

Weekly Weather Update:  Monday 14 July 2014

(Climate) Cool conditions this week have eased some stress in a few locations of south central to east central South Dakota.  Combined with precipitation during the week we have removed some areas of dryness in the Huron to Faulkton areas.  Locations southwest of Huron, to Charles Mix and Gregory Counties continue to run drier than average.  Some reduction in greenness is occurring in these areas.  But drying out is not a real concern at this point.  Wet and cool conditions continue largely across western SD leaving conditions still very green for this time of year. Current cool and dry conditions will give way to warmer conditions later in the week and next week. (Dennis Todey)

(Weather) Unseasonably cool conditions are plaguing the area as a deep upper level trough rotates over the Great Lakes region. This setup has brought strong northwesterly winds aloft to the region which, in turn, has forced a surface Canadian high pressure system to move into the area. Gusty northwest winds are found across the state today while temperatures will only peak today in the 60s to lower 70s. The high pressure will center over SD tomorrow which will bring a shift in the winds to the east and southeast. High temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer than today with mostly clear skies once again.

The high pressure will slowly slide to the east on Wednesday bringing southeasterly winds to most of SD. Temperatures will warm into the 70s statewide. Showers and thunderstorms are likely over southeastern WY and western NE through the day but most all of the precipitation should stay to the south. If anything, a few showers and storms may squeak into far southwestern SD. Thursday will bring highs in the 70s and 80s with light south winds and mostly clear skies.

A warming trend is expected for Friday-Sunday with highs in the 80s and 90s likely… one of the weather models is even painting 100s across much of central and western SD on Sunday. I think that is a bit aggressive at this point but regardless, things will definitely warm up as compared to today and tomorrow. No widespread precipitation is expected across the state through the weekend.

Summary: Cool conditions early this week will transition into average or above average temperatures for the weekend. Minimum RHs through the week should stay above 40% although somewhat lower RHs are possible this weekend depending on warm the high temperatures get. No critical fire weather is expected. (Darren Clabo)

(Fire/Fuels) No new information to report.  (Jim Strain)

*** NOTE: Next update on Monday 21 July ***

 

 

Contact:

Darren Clabo, SD State Fire Meteorologist: darren.clabo@sdsmt.edu

Dennis Todey, SD State Climatologist: dennis.todey@sdstate.edu

Jim Strain, SD Assistant Fire Chief: jim.strain@state.sd.us

 

 

Darren R. Clabo * State Fire Meteorologist/Instructor * Institute of Atmospheric Sciences

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology * 501 East Saint Joseph Street * Rapid City, SD 57701

darren.clabo@sdsmt.edu * (O) 605-394-1996 * (C) 605-381-9253 *